By Robert C. Balling Jr. : Bio - http://www.tcsdaily.com/Authors.aspx?id=242 6/24/2006 Inconvenient Truths Indeed Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" opens around the country this week. In the film Gore pulls together evidence from every corner of the globe to convince us that climate change is happening fast, we are to blame, and if we don't act immediately, our Earth will be all but ruined. However, as you sit through the film, consider the following inconvenient truths: (1) Near the beginning of the film, Gore pays respects to his Harvard mentor and inspiration, Dr. Roger Revelle. Gore praises Revelle for his discovery that atmospheric CO2 levels were rising and could potentially contribute to higher temperatures at a global scale. There is no mention <http://www.hoover.org/publications/books/fulltext/polscience/283.pdf> of Revelle's article published in the early 1990s concluding that the science is "too uncertain to justify drastic action." /(S.F. Singer, C. Starr, and R. Revelle, "What to do about Greenhouse Warming: Look Before You Leap. Cosmos 1 (1993) 28-33.)/ (2) Gore discusses glacial and snowpack retreats atop Mt. Kilimanjaro, implying that human induced global warming is to blame. But Gore fails to mention that the snows of Kilimanjaro have been retreating for more than 100 years, largely due to declining atmospheric moisture, not global warming. Gore does not acknowledge the two major articles on the subject published in 2004 in the /International Journal of Climatology /and the /Journal of Geophysical Research/ showing that modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro was initiated by a reduction in precipitation at the end of the nineteenth century and not by local or global warming. (3) Many of Gore's conclusions are based on the "Hockey Stick" that shows near constant global temperatures for 1,000 years with a sharp increase in temperature from 1900 onward. The record Gore chooses in the film completely wipes out the Medieval Warm Period of 1,000 years ago and Little Ice Age that started 500 years ago and ended just over 100 years ago. There is evidence from throughout the world that these climate episodes existed, but on Gore's Hockey Stick, they become nothing more than insignificant fluctuations (Gore even jokes at one point about the Medieval Warm period). (4) You will certainly not be surprised to see Katrina, other hurricanes, tornadoes, flash floods, and many types of severe weather events linked by Gore to global warming. However, if one took the time to read the downloadable "Summary for Policymakers <http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/006.htm>" in the latest report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), one would learn that "No systematic changes in the frequency of tornadoes, thunder days, or hail events are evident in the limited areas analysed" and that "Changes globally in tropical and extra-tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by inter-decadal and multi-decadal variations, with no significant trends evident over the 20th century." (5) Gore claims that sea level rise could drown the Pacific islands, Florida, major cities the world over, and the 9/11 Memorial in New York City. No mention is made of the fact that sea level has been rising at a rate of 1.8 mm per year for the past 8,000 years; the IPCC notes <http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/013.htm> that "No significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20^th century has been detected." (6) Near the end of the film, we learn of ways the United States could reduce emissions of greenhouse gases back to the levels of 1970. OK. Assume the United States accomplishes this lofty goal, would we see any impact on climate? The well-known answer is no. China, India and many other countries are significantly increasing their emission levels, and global concentrations of CO2 may double this century no matter what we decide to do in the United States. Even if the Kyoto Protocol could be fully implemented to honor the opening of this movie, the globe would be spared no more than a few hundredths of a degree of warming. Throughout the film Gore displays his passion for the global warming issue, and it is obvious that he has dedicated a substantial amount of time to learning about climate change and the greenhouse effect. This leads to an obvious question. The Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in December of 1997 giving the Clinton-Gore administration more than three years to present the Protocol to the United States Senate for ratification. Given Gore's position in the senate and his knowledge and passion for global warming, one must wonder why then Vice President Gore did not seize on what appears to have been an opportunity of a lifetime? "An Inconvenient Truth" is billed as the scariest movie you'll ever see. It may well be, but that's in part because it is not the most accurate depiction of the state of global warming science. The enormous uncertainties surrounding the global warming issue are conveniently missing in "An Inconvenient Truth." /Dr. Robert C. Balling Jr. is a professor in the climatology program at Arizona State University, specializing in climate change and the greenhouse effect./

Guajalote@gobblegobble.com wrote: > By Robert C. Balling Jr. : Bio - > http://www.tcsdaily.com/Authors.aspx?id=242 > > 6/24/2006 > > Inconvenient Truths Indeed Despite the fact that I happen to agree with Dr. Balling's observations on the situation called "Global Warming" and his critique of Al Gore's film, I question its being posted here. It is only marginally related to ponding. It relates more to our quality of life in general, from a scientific, social and political point of view. It opens the door to many other off-topic posts. Since I consider this to be an off-topic post, any of the moderators or regular posters on this group is welcome to email me about this. Thank you. -- Nick. Support severely wounded and disabled Veterans and their families! I've known US vets who served as far back as the Spanish American War. They are all my heroes! Thank a Veteran and Support Our Troops. You are not forgotten. Thanks ! ! ~Semper Fi~

There have been numerous periods through the history of this planet when the climate has warmed and cooled (I prefer warmer) The little Ice age (1450 to 1900) lasted 450 years. The medieval warm period lasted maybe 300 years....there have been around 60 glacial advances and retreats during the last 2 million years. Isn't it obvious that the climate changes..Why is it so terrible even if the temperature goes up a degree or two in the next century..It has done so in the past and we are still here...How accurate are these predictions anyway..They can not even tell us for sure what the weather will be next week...yet they would have us believe there predictions off doom and gloom....The seas will rise 20' and hurricanes of greater and greater intensity...so much BS..If you believe this stuff, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I can give you a great deal on. Back in the Seventies many of the same people who now talk of global warming were then predicting a new ice age. When have they ever been right? The theory that man made Carbon Dioxide causes global warming just makes no sense to me ....Carbon Dioxide is not a pollutant at all, we breath it out, plants breath it in and convert it to Oxygen...there would be no life on this planet without carbon dioxide. CARBON DIOXIDE IS ESSENTIAL FOR LIFE!!! Somewhere around 95% of all CO2 is emitted by nature.Something like 3% of the atmosphere is greenhouse gas...95% of that is water vapor, only 3.6% of greenhouse gas is CO2..Of this only about 5% comes from human activity.. Others would probably dispute these numbers, but the bottom line is, It just really seems like there is a whole hell of a lot more that we do not know about climate change than what we know... At one time there was a consensus that the world was flat, and that the earth was the center of the universe.....consensus is not scientific fact...There are Thousands of scientists that do not buy into the theory of human caused global warming. Human caused global warming is not a scientific fact, it is a theory with a lot of holes in it..like if the increase in human carbon production is causing this global warming, then why did average temperatures drop about 1/2 degree between 1940 and 1975 (prompting the predictions of a coming Ice age) Think about it..if all human life ceased to exist, the climate would still change from time to time. It always has and probably always will.